Publication: Predicting patient exercise capacity: How hard can it be?

Predicting patient exercise capacity: How hard can it be?
Buschel H, Gunnarsson R, Blyth S, Hillier S.
Munich germany: European Society of Cardiology; 2018.



Exercise capacity (EC) is the most powerful predictor of the presence and prognosis of coronary artery disease. EC is most commonly assessed by history taking.


To investigate how accurately patients and doctors predict patient EC.


Prospective, multi-centre cohort study of 113 patients. Patients and referring doctors were asked to predict EC in METs from a list of activities (figure 1).


Patient demographics: 42% female, mean age 55, Indigenous Australians 26% (versus 11.3% of Cairns). Doctors: registrar (54%), cardiologist (18%), general practitioner (13%), general physician (9%), junior doctor (6%). Correlation with stress testing: Good correlation: 0.8. Patients: 0.49-0.47 (p<0.001), female/older patients were better. Doctors: 0.22-0.25, better for patients with diabetes/asthma.


Doctor clinical questioning and patient reported EC has a poor correlation with actual EC in patients referred for a clinically indicated EST

, from FoU-centrum för primärvård och folktandvård Södra Älvsborg